It's another slow news day but, because of that, the weekly jobless claims data got far more attention than usual. And it's a good thing, too, as the weekly totals finally budged off of the ridiculously stable 212,000 number for the first time in weeks.
For this data to have any relevance at all, it has to eventually begin showing the impact of the hundreds of thousands of corporate layoffs. Oh sure, maybe a "white collar" job loss comes with some sort of temporary severance package that forestalls a claim for unemployment insurance. But those severance checks run out eventually and, if you haven't found a new job, you're going to end up in line at your local employment office.
Since this was considered "big news" in the absence of anything else, the bond market rallied 4 basis points but it has since given back two of them.
And the POSX dumped. It fell about 30¢ in the aftermath, bounced but is now back to its LOD.
How have the Comex PMs responded? About as you'd expect. They rallied, were almost immediately smashed backward, but then rerallied to near their HOD.
As Phil Collins once said...It's just another day for you and me in paradise.
What else is there to mention this morning? A few things. Here's our old friend Steph pointing out to a wider audience that the most important event of 2022 occurred the first weekend of March.
Here's an interesting piece from ZH on the surging use of "Buy Now, Pay Later" retail credit lines. What's not priced in is how much of this mass of debt must eventually be written off as "Buy Now, Pay Never"... https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/missing-puzzle-piece-revealed-behind-i...
Here's an interesting article from the Indian version (not Fauxcahontas "Indian" but actual India) of CNBS. The bank analysis cited here projects $2450 CDG and $34 CDS. https://www.cnbctv18.com/market/commodities/akshaya-tritiya-silver-to-ou...
Not sure what to make of this but I'll put it here, anyway:
Here are some more earnings reports from overnight:
And here's today's tidbit on copper. Again, why the focus on copper? Because, if all else fails, copper going to $12,000/ton will drag silver kicking and screaming through $30.
OK so, with that, where are we? Actually, we're doing quite well, thank you. As I've been typing, the POSX has fallen new lows on the day:
Which places the Comex PMs here:
Lastly, remember that $28 is the key level here. We need to CLOSE above $28 today (and probably tomorrow, too), before we can get excited about another stab at $29-30. So far, so good!
More later with your Thursday Conversation.
TF
