Turd's Blog

Founder
tfmetalsreport [at] gmail [dot] com ()

Craig Hemke, aka "Turd Ferguson," was a licensed securities "professional" for nearly twenty years. Disgruntled by the fraud known as "financial services", he retired to a career as a serial entrepreneur in 2008. Though otherworldly in his ability to forecast price movements, The Turd is NOT a soothsayer, a psychic or a witch. After all these years, he simply has a decent understanding of the forces at play in the precious metal "markets".

You can reach The Turd by visiting the Contact page and selecting "Speak to The Turd" or you can simply send him an email at turd[at]tfmetalsreport[dot]com. If you are polite and not belligerently arrogant, he will probably answer you in short order. If he does not answer you, do not be offended. He's a busy guy and there are only so many hours in a day.

December NYSE Option Expiration Day

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On top of all the craziness this week...the news...the data...the FOMC...we wrap it all up today with NYSE option expiration day. We usually worry that a smash is incoming on these days but, after already having been beaten to within inches of our lives earlier this week, today doesn't present...

Aftermath

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Not much new to add this morning after yesterday's debacle. But there are a few items for you to consider before heading out to continue your holiday preparations.

Let's start with today's final guess at Q3 GDP. It was adjusted upward to +3.1% which, when computed into nominal dollars...

December FOMC Day

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Well, we made it. The long-awaited December FOMC meeting draws to a close this afternoon with Fedlines at 2:00 ET and Jerry's presser at 2:30. Another 25 basis point cut to the fed funds target is all but assured but what's the plan expectation hope for 2025? That's the big question and how it'...

TFMR "Podcast" - Tuesday, December 17

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Due to my schedule today, I'm unable to record a regular podcast. As such, here's a written "podcast" with some images and charts to consider as we prepare the way for The Jerry.

Again, the fun tomorrow will begin at 2:00 pm ET with the Fedlines and latest SEP. From there, we'll get...

Blase Tuesday

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Though Christmas is right around the corner, it feels a bit like November again as the smash last week has seemingly destroyed all upward momentum and sentiment in the Comex PMs. Can/will Jerry turn things around tomorrow?

Maybe this week will mirror last week. Instead of up early and...

December FOMC Week

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The new week begins and it will be the final busy week of the year. All sorts of economic data is on tap as well as the December FOMC meeting. Can the Comex PMs paint green weekly candles and set the stage for a year-end, Santa Claus rally? Check back on Friday and we'll know! Until then,...

Flip-Flop

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What an odd and frustrating week this has been for us. The first three days saw solid gains but the last two have been a disaster with all of those gains lost and flipping the weekly candles into the red. What does it mean, if anything? Not much, really, other than another affirmation that The...

Banks Fight Back

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After three days of solid gains based upon supply and delivery concerns, the Comex PMs are being smashed backward today as The Banks attempt to paint outsized reversal candles onto the daily charts and regain some of the control and downward momentum that they'd lost since last week.

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Wednesday Thread

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I'm going to be unavailable most of the morning so here's a new thread for you to work with. As the morning progresses, I should be able to add the CPI data, headlines and some charts into the comments section.

For your watching and reading pleasure, here are two items I completed back...

Breaking The Wall

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We noted yesterday the wall of spoofs and other orders at $2700 Feb25 CDG. That wall continue to hold and cap price overnight. However and somewhat amazingly, the wall failed on Comex and now CDG is back trading above $2700 for the first time since the beatdown of Monday, November 25.

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