Longtime site member "metallionaire" consistently offers great content and analysis through his regular participation in the comment sections of the daily threads. From time to time, a long form comment is worthy of promotion to the home page and this entry from last Saturday fits the bill.
Resiliency, by metallionaire
More and more people are beginning to realize the importance of being prepared for the various crises that are likely to come our way in the next few years. I wrote the following back in 2021 and have updated and modified it somewhat to reflect my current thinking on these matters.
Many books have been written about prepping and it can seem overwhelming, even impossible, but there are things we all can do to make ourselves more resilient. There is no perfect answer and every crisis brings its own challenges. The following is meant to be a roadmap and not an exhaustive "to do" list. Please expand on them as you see fit while keeping in mind that survival often hinges on that one idea that only becomes obvious in retrospect.
A priori, we should hope for a gradual and peaceful resolution to the excesses of the past half-century but the accelerating trends we are witnessing, suggest otherwise. If we should have a complete collapse, few of us can imagine the horror it may portend. For those with the stomach for it, I suggest you watch the film Mr Jones, about a reporter trying to get the first hand story of the Ukranian Holodomor back in the 1930s. In his pursuit of the story, he witnesses endless starvation and deprivation. In one haunting scene he comes across a run-down farmhouse occupied by two young sisters. They prepare a meal for him including some meat - a rare commodity. Jones asks where they were able to get the meat – “from my brother” the oldest claims. The reporter presses and asks where her brother was able to find meat and she points to the back door – he walks to the door and there, lying in the snow, was the frozen corpse of her brother. Gruesome, but a reminder of the horror that others have endured during previous collapses – willfully enforced upon them, in the Ukrainian case, by Joseph Stalin. I hesitated to include this anecdote, as the goal here is not to be alarmist - but one must first comprehend the parameters of what a total collapse might entail before we can discuss preparations.
First up, it is important to realize that being prepared is much more a mindset than it is a “to do” list. Assembling a stock of goods may be suitable for a weekend storm or power outage, but will be of limited benefit, in and of itself, during a societal collapse.
If I were to try to encompass the idea of preparation in one succinct compendium list I would suggest the following:
LEARN: Learn skills. Learn every type of skill you can imagine! Learn how to substitute. Learn the traditional basic methods of making things. Learn to live simply. Learn how to grow, preserve and cook food. Learn how to fix things and fabricate from what is available. Collect hand-powered tools, books and materials that will provide the knowledge needed to fend for yourself. Learn to fish, hunt and butcher if your surroundings provide for such possibilities. Learn about foods that can be foraged from local sources. Add to this list.
STOCKPILE: Stock dry foods. Stock water treatment tablets. Stock household items like lightbulbs, furnace filters, tap washers, toilet repair kits and more. Stock garden seeds to last 5 years minimum (only non-pelleted, open-pollinated or heirloom seeds). Stock firewood and building materials including screws and nails. Stock medical supplies and personal care products. Stock duct tape (a very versatile thing to have). Stock board games, playing cards, paper and writing supplies that do not dry out. Buy a detailed map of your local area. Buy a set of barber scissors. Buy large pots and utensils for “canning” fruits and vegetables. Buy a working typewriter. Buy a hand-crank powered radio. Buy lots of batteries to power your devices for at least a year. Buy good quality gardening tools. Buy a hand-powered lawnmower. Stock as much gasoline as your local regulations allow – same with propane. Stock cash for short term use. Stock precious metals for longer term use. Add to this list.
PERSONAL: Get to know others that are like-minded. Get your personal affairs in order. Get your family onboard if possible. Locate and support local sources for the things you need. Get a 10 year lease on a small plot of land for a future garden. Keep a low profile. Get any outstanding legal, medical or dental issues resolved ASAP. Add to this list.
SECURITY: Appraise your home for its “resilience value” (discussed later) and make changes wherever possible. Have access to barter “chips”. Keep money out of major banks wherever possible. Buy a bicycle. Buy a generator and stock fuel for it. Acquire weapons if you are legally able and know how to use them. Add to this list.
OUT OF THE BOX: Buy an older pre-electronic car (think Cuba!) that runs properly and store it. Keep a valid license for it even if you do not use it. Any auto more than 25 years old is eligible for cheap heritage insurance. Buy extra maintenance parts for it! If you have a farm, buy a 1960s Ford tractor – they remain in high demand and can be repaired forever with a basic high school training in auto mechanics. If you don’t use these things, think of them as diversified investment assets – they hold their value! Build a simple brick oven. Get a drilled well and hand-powered pump if permitted. Add to this list.
Granted, many of the things listed are impractical or impossible but the more you have, the greater your potential resiliency. Remember, resilience is a function of circumstance and adaptability. If you increase your score on either variable, you increase your resilience.
Let’s set aside the list-building for a moment and explore some foundational principles of preparedness. One of the key resources we have is time and how we use it. We all have a “Book of Good Intentions” but all the good intentions in the world are meaningless if they are not realized. Start making lists and crossing items off as they are completed. Shift unrealized goals to the next list and stay focused on results, not promises or good intentions. Keep a journal – it helps to maintain disciple and order.
A mechanic I once used had a sign that said “We provide good, cheap, fast results – you can have any two you wish. A good, fast job won’t be cheap; a good, cheap job won’t be fast; and a cheap, fast job won’t be good”. Keep this in mind as you prioritize your time. Some things must be high quality and will take more time, while others can suffer some quality-control just to get them done quickly. Always remember that time is a resource and should be spent wisely – aim for optimal results, not maximum results – the first is probability based, the latter is functionally based. Some things need to be “good” – other just need to be “good enough”.
NETWORK: Developing a network of like-minded people with an array of skills may be the most critical element in developing resiliency. Start a BB&C club – Butcher, Baker and Candlestick-Maker. I once belonged to a group informally called the WHEO club – We Help Each Other – local business people where membership was limited to one person in each trade or service – and the goal was to promote one another to the general public. Organize a WHEO club in your community focused on resilience – a farmer, a carpenter, a plumber, a mechanic and others who can share their skills. Set up a simple barter system – one point for one hour of labor. If one helps another, they get a point owed to them. Imbalances can be reconciled with some form of repayment to ensure one guy (the farmer) isn’t the only one contributing. Keep it simple. It’s a great way to get introduced to others in the community that have the same goals as you but a different skill set.
RESIDENTIAL RESILIENCE: As noted earlier, it is important to re-evaluate your residence from a resiliency frame of reference. If you live in a 44th floor condo, I’m sorry to tell you, you’re F@@KED. If the energy supply fails, you will perspire more water than you can carry up 44 flights of stairs. Your entire existence is based on an energy deficit. It always amazes me that urban dwellings are the highest valued, yet the LEAST resilient. Within 72 hours of a shutdown, urban dwellers would be in a desperate situation. You can devise a simple gauge to determine the resiliency value of your property. Add or subtract points for your access to potable water, to local edible vegetation, to farming and/or meat supplies, or your ability to get to suppliers and work sites in the absence of the transportation or utility systems, or to protect yourself from marauders looking for something to eat and steal. If you live on a small farm with a drinking-water well, give yourself 100 points. If you’re in that 44th floor condo, score negative-100 points. Most of are somewhere in-between. If you have a positive score you have some resilience. If you are negative you have a dependency score. It’s subjective but a worthwhile exercise to estimate the resiliency quotient for your residence. Make decisions on how you can increase the resilience – in dramatic instances it may suggest you should move – more often, you can make changes to your abode to improve its score. Do you have space for a garden, an outhouse, a work shop or a well?
THE MATRIX: Think of the choices you make as elements of a matrix, comprising time, skills, assets and circumstance. How much time do you have to plan, what skills and personal qualities do you bring to bear, what tools and assets are at your disposal, and what are the circumstances that limit your choices. Try to optimize (increase probabilities in your favor) as much as you can.
Set up a budget for preparation that includes all four elements of the matrix. Dedicate time to your preparation plan and make the commitment to act on it. Build your skill set and find others that can contribute. Allocate assets toward preparations. Buy gold, silver, tools, books, storable food and all the other things on our list and more. Improve your circumstances wherever possible using the guidelines above.
Add to your list of things to do, continuously! As I noted at the outset, this is just a synopsis. It's a general framework to build upon. Please share your ideas with others and, above all else, act while you can. Events are accelerating and dark clouds are gathering….
