The Big Three (NEM, GOLD & AEM)

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#1 Tue, Dec 10, 2024 - 12:21pm
Lageraemia
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The Big Three (NEM, GOLD & AEM)

Hello fellow Turdites, please indulge me emerging from the shadows for a the first time..... greatings from Gloucestershire in the UK by the way.

I'm abolutely fascinated by what's going on with the mining Majors. Like TF, I not very keen on Barrick or Newmont and much prefer Agnico Eagle as an investment. As we're 75 percent of of the way through the Q4 reporting period its looking very much like the average Q4 2024 spot price for gold will be north of $2600 compared with $2450 for Q3.

Plugging that into AEM's last quarter results means that barring any major corporate action splurges or significant drops in the spot Gold price, they could effectively eliminate net debt by Easter and have well over a $bn in cash. However, AEMs share price this week has diverged from gold which is rising. Is 'Tax loss selling' at a time when Bob Coleman says there's a spike in the 'cost to borrow' for GLD ETF shares (https://x.com/profitsplusid/status/1866505679521104230) having an effect? AEM's forward guidance on its Dividend policy could also a be a big news drop at the EoY I suspect.

Newmont however appears to finally be taking Turd's advice and looking to start reducing their bloated management structure to reduce their ridiculous AISC: https://www.mining.com/web/newmont-cuts-management-jobs-in-major-corpora... but I wonder how much of a dent one executive and 12 senior managers will make though....probably a few dollars off the AISC at most.

Also, does anyone have an opinion as to why these companies don't hedge their diesel consumption like airlines do with their fuel? Oil is less expensive on average by over 10% than it was in H1 this year and much cheeper than it was in 2022/23. If I were on the the board of these companies I'd be looking to lock some of this in and be talking about it more.

However, to old fashioned people who equate 'share' prices to a 'share' of actual earnings from producing actuall stuff, AEM looks like a steal on a 'tuck it away and forget about it'.