I enclose a selection of charts for readers which show my personal preferred interpretation of the present status of time cycles in the silver market.
I say "preferred" because these things are adjusted to remove "noise" and this is an expertise and also a subjective thing, which my current knowledge, or even mood can affect for unintended bias to up or down side.
So let's go:
First the 7-8 year cycle in silver:
As can be seen there are two ways to plot this long term cycle. Taken off the 2011 all time high it bottoms during the month of June 2015, or a year away. But taken as a best fit with the historical movement of the silver market this cycle can be plotted with it's top on the 2012 high, and this way it does not make it's low, for this particular cycle, until September 2016.
Next the "presidential" pump-and-elect cycle:
This 4 year cycle appears to have bottomed during the past 6 months.
Next the "congressional" pump-and-elect cycle:
This 2 year cycle has been modified by the "quantitative easing" or "money printing for banks" scheme run by the Federal Reserve and cohort central banks whereby money was created and given interest cost free to the owner-members of the Fed. As can be seen this appears to have caused inversions within the congressional pump-and-elect cycle - 2012-13 low became a high - but timing still appears to have held. The 2013-2014 high is suppressed due to possible continued inversion. This cycle is probably trending down towards it's low, but if inversion repeats that turn could be another high, about January 2015.
Next the chart of the seasonal effect in the silver market:
This "cycle" also has been affected, or modified, by coordinated western central bank scheme of giving cost free money to leading banking corporations. Highs from the seasonal effect have been suppressed, as prices of other financial sectors preferred by the banks have risen, and consequently new capital inflows drawn to those markets instead of towards the silver market.
Top 20 timecycles in weekly silver:
When the topmost 20 cycles in silver are taken as a whole the summer to fall of 2014 appears to contain a significant low. Three dates are shown with an interim low, a rally high, and a more significant low for this team of cycles.
Harmonic projection :
This is not a cycle as such, but a proprietary algorithm which links together many repetitive price components within the silver price.
This suggests the the next low will be the better low, end of June 2014, and the following low will be an interim low within the a new uptrend in the price of silver.
The"Weekly Grid":
This is another proprietary algorithm. The price of silver tends to bounce off the datelines and also off the price lines shown, especially where datelines cross price lines:
This suggests that the next low in silver may come a week earlier than end of June and provides two weekly datelines 20 and 28 June 2014.
The blue line above which resembles a moving average, but which moves ahead of the price (unlike moving averages), is designed to call turns and breakouts. It's non-directional, which is to say a turn is important, but the direction may be either same as or contra the actual price turn, if it is a successful forecast and the turn appears. It suggests that silver will break upwards or downwards at the time suggested by the timelines in an either-or scenario outcome.
Stops are therefore required whichever strategy is chosen, to protect against the alternative scenario being the outcome selected by the silver price.
I give special mention of the situation whereby the longer cycles are more bearish, and the medium to shorter term cycles are in many cases transitioning from bearish to bullish during the period from about now for the coming month or two. What this means is a debatable point and leaves plenty of room for argument between bulls and bears.
This is for discussion or entertainment purposes only, and not investment advice.
Argentus Maximus
The author posts daily commentary on the gold and silver markets in the TFMR forum: The Setup For The Big Trade. More information about the author & his work can be found here: RhythmNPrice.
