2016 KY derby thread
Ok let me start by saying the fields not set yet. Also that I haven't been paying as much as attention as I have in the past. As lost this will be the third year TBTB declared a derby winner was going to had and the rules were changed. By selecting pointed races instead of cash won it changed the entire complexity and elevated and true speed horses. Which means deep closers are ar a distinct disadvantage as well. So what we're looking for is stalkers and pressers and of course those few who can wire to wire, I shall begin with moyahem. After reviewing all his races I'm convinced his post and his trip did him in, he's just a monster work horse and just ripped off a .46 sec 4f breeze - there are sprinters who win races in that time..... But then there is speedy Nyquist who just repelled him last time out. We know tapit easily get 10-12furlongs, we know nothing about uncle mo's as these are his first and as great as they are we have no stats on distance as uncle mo himself was retired before he could show what he had. Nevertheless I'm positive he's going to get at least 1 1/4 miles. I'm just as sure mo tom will as well. Mo tom had tons in the tank and multiple gears but was impeded by lousy rides. He's much better tan he looks on paper. Mor spirit... No not an uncle mo but an eskandera with a ton of speed who can rate and is a baffert horse. He is no toss for ur exotics. Lani .... Dear lord .. If God decided to breed a horse he would have got lani. I've never seen such a pedigree. He's strong willed and lazy tho and does what he wants ...any other horse would have had his nuts whacked off but there is no weakness in his pedigree. He American bred but Japanese owned, trained and raced. What gets them beat here is they don't get our horses run the entire distance. We don't just gear up last part of the race. He made a killer ground covering move in a mere six strides his last out. Yet, trains like a mule. He's got the talent and ability but will he use it in derby day... I dunno but he will be in a few of my exotics. Shagaf was taken off the trail, then put back in .... Puzzling.... Since they have Exaggerator, no he's not faster on a dirt track over moyahem or Nyquist but he's a brilliant route runner. He is definitely NOT a toss. I'm very biased towards him as I have history in his pedigree. I know his tale line well and with the right trip he could win but it's more likely on the board against these others. What I'm doing is trying to whittle down half the field to toss. It's still too early..... Destin will never beat these top horses straight up and Brody's cause both out of one my fav studs seems to a step slower. But you can toss Brody's bad race as just a clunker. Whitmore is improving but Iraq Ortiz jumped off him... All u need to know. My man Sam rapidly improving but is it enough.... I'll have more to say as u know I will generally post who you should bet and what I'm likely to bet cuz I always make always bet against the favorite or don't bet at all. You can count moyahem will stalk the pace if he can draw inside ..... Quite honestly he's the best horse in there and with such a bad race last time. There maybe value betting him. Keep in mind secretariat was NOT the favorite. And I'm wondering if shags for will be used for a hot pace. If they were mine that's what I do .... More to come I reckon
