Tanned, rested and ready. Reporting for duty.
I'll likely have a lot to say over the next few days so I'll try to keep this brief.
First of all, the notion that The Fed will somehow discontinue or slow QE∞ is downright silly, yet it's lapped up by the MSM and repeated here by folks either unwilling or unable to grasp the rationale for QE in the first place. And besides, this selloff isn't about QE, anyway. That's just your current cover story.
This is about squaring the CoT. Plain and simple. As you know, I've been trying to make sense of the silver CoT for weeks. At nearly 100,000 gross shorts, something had to change. The result is the action since the cutoff last week. The question remains, however: What is happening with the Commercial Long position? Is it growing or shrinking. Total open interest continues to grow so we may simply be seeing a continuation of CommLong growth. We might also be seeing a significant jump in new meat SpecShort positions. Either way, it's impossible to know for sure and that alone makes using the CoT as a trading/investing tool very difficult.
I've said that if silver trades to $22, I'll eat my hat. Yes, I will post a video of me doing exactly that if it occurs. I still have a very hard time believing that it will happen, though. Of course, anything is possible but, for now, silver should find VERY STRONG SUPPORT in the same $26-28 region that has supported it for the past year and a half. Why wouldn't it? What has changed fundamentally that would draw you to conclude that this time it's different?
In gold, though, we have likely reached the point where the CoT would indicate a bottom. Combine that with chart support at the bottom of the 18-month range AND all of the other oversold, technical indicators and I'm very confident in saying that The End Is Near. I know I gave you $1580 over the weekend and, so far, I've been off by $30 or so. In the end, though, that hardly matters. All that matters is that gold is once again at the bottom of its 18-month range. Now, IF THE BOTTOM FAILS and gold trades down through $1525, then we've potentially got a problem on our hands. Until then, though, relax and try to see it for what it is...namely, we're back to where we were last summer and at year-end of 2011.
I'm going to stop there for now but I promise you a full, complete post later today. I know this sucks but hang in there and, for God's sake, DON'T SELL YOUR PHYSICAL.
TF
p.s. All sorts of trolls and disinfo agents were allowed in here yesterday while I was traveling. That will not be the case today. Either state something productive or state nothing at all. This is my site and I will run in at I see fit. Folks that show up here simply to ridicule you or me will not be tolerated. I get sick of reading about how stoo-stoo-stoopid we all are and how I'm just in it for the money. We need helpful feedback on days like this, not bullshit.
