Doctor J's Contributions

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I recall back in the wild days leading up to May of 2011 that a number of regulars on the old blogspot site began to warn of a downturn in silver. They were nearly shouted off the discussion boards with some blunt words. This place was a bullish as it gets and I watched the AG price rise up through the 40s with greed and glee. But the bears were right, and those who took the warning seriously and hedged their stacks did not regret it.

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Only a fool boasts about their stack to friends. Yet, we want to encourage friends & family to stack. But if I tell a good friend, and he casually mentions it down at the pub after a few beers, I better be prepared.

When the muse visits, one must start writing.

Here are some late afternoon musings I hope will make this 3-day weekend pass more thoughtfully. And maybe, Craig will feel less pressure to crank out a post in the early morning to explain what is going on.

It is always good to slow down and analyze.

A funny coincidence occurred recently—yet another week when the Fed is hinting, signaling, screaming (but probably lying) that they will raise interest rates. A colleague asked me if I would review an article she has written for an encyclopedia on research methods. Her article explains “Evidence-Bassed Policy.” So I’d like to muse about the FED’s decision-making methods here in this short essay, and contrast them with the theory behind their stated rationale.

Traditionally, when one's character is impugned, one must defend themselves publicly. Traditionally this is done either through a duel or a speech. As much as some of us might love to see a duel, we’ll have to settle for talk. Traditionally, the impugned person would deliver that speech (advised by a PR team), but today it usually an underling as advised by that same PR team. So what are the Democrats doing to save face and recover their honor after revelations that they have colluded with the media to rig their Primary Election process?

Hint: It's certainly not the right thing .

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About 20 years ago I was working at an Intel Plant in Albuquerque NM on a construction crew. At lunchtime each day, many of us would leave the plant and drive a mile to one of the fast food places up the road. Often we would be a few minutes late coming back. You know what happened next. A general contractor superintendent got pissed off, counting minutes and multiplying by hourly wages. They “reacted.” They made a new rule: Anyone who comes back from lunch late will be fired.

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Aaaahhh, the life of a farmer … filled with healthy food, baby animals, fun for the kids, beautiful land, lying back in a field, hands folded behind my head, watching clouds while chewing on an grass stem... and… a whole lot of hard work, government meddling, spring storms that kill blossoms, pests, drought, skunks running amok in the garden, zombies, and did I mention hard work?

Much discussion this weekend that is relevant to the central aim of our blog seems to center around the legitimacy of this recent metals rally and whether or not “this time is different.” Our fine host Craig has warned us on Friday that this time may not be different. In fact, key signals that have traditionally preceded a metals smash are building.

Why? the monsters are not dead yet.

The muses who inspire our literature and dreams are shouting at humanity with some basic principles. Our monsters are warnings--a coded taxonomy of those people and offices that we must keep in check. Only the people, bonding together, marching out with torches and pitchforks, can stand against their power.

Enjoy your vacation Craig. And don't forget to check under the bed.

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Some musings for a Sunday afternoon as we await the market open.

I just became a real roofer this week—first roof ever. There I am straddling the top of the original homestead building (1905) as my wife snaps a photo. I am getting too old for this kind of work. But we are discovering that our neighbors around these parts are not what we hoped. Its time to switch our efforts to a friendlier location.

The prepping goes on!

Well, my students say they get too much of me and they really do each semester. But my winter break is almost over and I'll slip back into the shadows again til summer, so I thought I pass along this missive I wrote to my relatives, hoping to persuade them to get out of the markets and do something sensible to prepare for the crash.

None of this is news to our readers here, but feel free to pass this essay along if you think it might help your cause. Otherwise, enjoy it as weekend reading and feel free to constructively critique my efforts so I can warn people even more forcefully in the future.

"WOLF!" and I'll cry it again, "WOLF!!!"

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Well life just doesn't seem right without an end-of-the-week podcast. So I'll try to pinch-hit without striking out.

Come on in for a listen and then leave a comment to straighten me out. God knows I need it.

Jerome

Just a holiday thread to generate some prepping discussion and give our dear "number 2" host a break. Business needs have called us away from home to work--to get property in sale-able shape so my family can be out of debt, completely! say a prayer for us and we'll reciprocate.

From my vantage point, the informed consensus is that we have begun a long slow economic decline, hoping to avoid world war, pissed off at the FED and banks for their thievery, but thankful that we have not had a collapse. I feel inspired to quote Thomas Paine’s ending words to Common Sense right here:

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“Until an independence is declared, the Continent will feel itself like a man who continues putting off some unpleasant business from day to day, yet knows it must be done, hates to set about it, wishes it over, and is continually haunted with the thoughts of its necessity.”

I resonate with that feeing, being haunted each day with the necessity of the imminent collapse, restructuring, revolution or whatever has to come. And if the Totalitarians have their way, it just puts the end off a bit longer, with even more pain and suffering in between and after. The Adults who are awake can see all this. The sleepy teenagers just want to sleep… five more minutes. But they are waking up.

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Hey, lets monger some fear!

September 28 came and went without earthquakes, asteroids, flooding, fires and other such natural disasters that prophets of doom love to ascribe to the hand of God. Sure, there have been a few natural events, but nothing of biblical proportions. WW3 has not started. Israel is still sovereign. The economy has not collapsed.

So why all the fuss, and don’t those forecasters look foolish now?

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Feeling somewhat prolific lately, here is another sermon for the choir for your weekend reading. Perhaps I am just getting some ideas sorted out of the messy desk of my mind. I have sent this open letter to my friends and family, not wanting them to hate me for not warning them. I'd rather they think me crazy. I told them it would be my last word on the subject. Feel free to copy, paste, and forward to anyone you like, if you believe it may help the cause. And please, straighten me out if I have said something in error. I tried to err on the side of caution in making claims, staying on solid reasonable ground to make an argument that people who are disinclined to believe might be able to accept or at least consider.

At the risk of preaching to the choir... besides, we need a new thread for the day so we can speculate about the price action in the coming week.

One of our family stories is about my great-great grandfather who moved to Oklahoma at the edge of civilization after the Civil War. He learned that a railroad line was planned to pass through their region. Of course such things took time, but he got busy...

Image cannot be displayed Well, why not another podcast. Its sure easier than writing a whole article with footnotes and everything.

And I just don't understand why Bo won't return my calls. I thought we really had something going there a couple of days ago.

Disclaimer: My trading advice is not intended to advise you. I just cannot keep my mouth shut.

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Well, I am no Turd, and my market views should be carefully examined and questioned, possibly ridiculed, and not traded. But since friday's are just not the same without a podcast...

I sort of tried to arrange an interview with Bo Polny, but couldn't find his name in the phone book.

Click to listen

https://s1.vocaroo.com/media/download_temp/Vocaroo_s1VG1wd9O3iv.mp3

Some years ago, when my kids were young and bouncy, we took a drive with another family in a big van to another town, with their three kids and ours. The five kids (8, 9, 11, 12 & 13) were restless. So I tried an experiment. I began telling them a story. They all tuned in immediately.

We love stories. We believe stories. We construct our world on the stories we hear. We connect the dots, put the puzzle together... and it becomes truth for us.

Bill held the stick by the branches of the Y pinched between his thumbs and palms (at the end of his lifelines), palms up, wrapped his fingers around next, and then curled his wrists upwards causing the stem of the Y to point upwards, and started walking slowly across the sandy field, chanting an ancient rhyme with his eyes closed. ( Actually, I am kidding about the chant and closed eyes ) Then it happened!

The stick went “zoink,” twisting downward in his hands with the stem purportedly pointing at the water underground.

“I didn’t do that.” Bill said.